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Methodology

How a Trade Score and Directional Decision are actually built.

This page describes the real decision pipeline at a conceptual level — not implementation code or exact formula weights. Every score shown in the app decomposes into the components described here, visible in full for every symbol via the "Why This Trade" breakdown.

1. Market Regime

Every scoring cycle begins by classifying the current market environment: Trending vs. Choppy (based on average trend strength across the tracked universe) and Low-Vol vs. High-Vol (based on India VIX). This regime classification scales every subsequent score up or down — the same raw evidence is treated differently depending on whether the broader market is confirming or fighting the setup.

2. Edge Score

For each stock, four independent inputs are combined: price momentum, current option pricing conditions, open interest structure, and sector-relative breadth. This produces a raw measure of directional evidence, before regime adjustment.

3. Two independent engines

EdgeRegime computes bullish and bearish evidence separately, using genuinely different logic for each — not a mirrored or inverted version of the same formula. A stock that fails to qualify as a BUY does not automatically become a SELL candidate; the bearish case must independently clear its own bar.

4. Entry Timing & Option Quality

Entry Timing evaluates whether current price action (RSI/ADX) sits in a historically favorable zone for a new entry, independent of direction. Option Quality evaluates the actual tradeability of the contract itself — implied volatility relative to its own recent history, and bid-ask spread — since a good underlying view can still be a poor trade if the specific contract is expensively or thinly priced.

5. Risk Engine

Stop-loss and target levels are calculated from each stock's own recent volatility (its 14-day Average True Range) wherever that data is available, rather than a fixed percentage applied identically to every stock. A setup with insufficient reward relative to its risk is vetoed regardless of how strong the other components look.

6. Trade Score & Confidence

The components above combine into a single 0-100 Trade Score per direction, along with a Confidence rating (High/Medium/Low) reflecting how much the current regime and risk conditions support that score.

7. Final Decision

The bullish and bearish Trade Scores are compared using a margin-based rule, not a simple higher-number-wins comparison. A clearly dominant side produces BUY CE or BUY PE. Two genuinely close, strong scores produce WAIT (conflicting evidence) rather than an arbitrary pick. Two weak scores produce SKIP.

An honest note on validation: EdgeRegime tracks every signal against real outcomes automatically. Confidence calibration and any published performance statistics only activate once enough real signal history has accumulated to be statistically meaningful — see our Disclaimer for the current status of this evidence.
What current backtest results do and don't measure: current backtest results do not model transaction costs, brokerage, statutory charges, bid-ask spreads, slippage, or market impact. Reported historical returns reflect price movement only and should not be interpreted as achievable net trading returns.
Current backtest validation measures fixed forward holding periods (for example, 1-, 3-, and 5-day outcomes). It does not currently simulate dynamic trade management such as stop-losses, profit targets, trailing exits, or exits triggered by subsequent changes in Trade Score or Market Regime.